pat hinton

Will any of the planned rallies include these issues? Will a schedule/information be distributed in the parishes?

Mathematical Proof that Birth Control Fails
Posted on Mar 22, 2012
PolitiFact’s Truth-O-Meter examined the claim from a White House official who said “98 percent of Catholic women have used contraception,” and found the claim to be “mostly true.” The USCCB argued in return that the number was much lower, but Politifact held that the bishop’s mathematical error was in considering a “snapshot in time” rather than behavior over time, concluding that “most women [over time] would find occasion to take advantage of the new co-pay-free contraceptive rule.” This bothered me, and I remembered something I read in Robert Ruff’s 1988 book, Aborting Planned Parenthood. The widely held assumption that birth control “works” is not considered over time, but on a “snapshot in time” percentage.
Stick with me, this isn’t supposed to be a boring “how geeky art I” post. I want to show you something significant, and I’m giving you the tools to use it in a debate. Typical-use failure rates (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_birth_control_methods#Comparison_table) are defined as the expected number of pregnancies per year per 100 women using the method. That means that for the pill with a typical-use failure rate of 8, that of 100 women using the pill, in a single year 8 of them will become pregnant. A single year. But what about the ever-so-important “over time” predictions demanded by PolitiFact? Remember those lessons from algebra class about determining the probability of getting 16 heads if you flip a coin 100 times? That can be easily calculated by using the binomial probability formula. We can use that formula to also calculate how many women will become pregnant [drum roll] over time! using the failure rates reported by the contraception technology folks without needing to invoke any further magical assumptions (as good little mathematicians should do).
Click here for a little more detail and the promised tools. http://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/ch5apx.htmlThe typical-use failure rate for the pill is 8%, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_birth_control_methods#Comparison_table) in one year 8 out of 100 women using the pill in a typical way will get pregnant, but the numbers are much higher extrapolated over time. It’s even worse for condom use.
# Women out of 100 that will get pregnant 1 or more times:
Birth Control Method Typical-Use Failure Rate 1 year 5 years 10 years
Pill 8 8 34 57
Condom 17 17 56 80

8 out of 100 women will have unintended pregnancies in one year, but 34 of those same 100 women will have unintended pregnancies in 5 years, and more than half in 10 years. Condom use has an even higher failure rate, so typical-use of condoms over 5 years actually makes a woman more likely to get pregnant than not. Over ten year’s time, it practically ensures unintended pregnancy. And what about teens? Teens are not as careful so the failure rates are higher. (http://www.contracept.org/teenrates.php)
# Teens out of 100 that will get pregnant 1 or more times:
Birth Control Method Typical-Use Failure Rate 1 year 5 years 10 years
Pill 8.6 9 36 59
Condom 17.7 18 62 86

Fifteen is the age considered the beginning of the reproductive lifetime, so out of 100 fifteen-year-old girls who begin using birth control, 36 of them will be pregnant by the time they are age 20. More than half will be pregnant by the time they are age 25. For condom use, again, it practically ensures unintended pregnancy by age 20. (Disease is a whole ‘nother story.)
Thus, birth control does NOT prevent unintended pregnancy, but over time it actually makes it more likely, whether the woman is a teen or not. After all, when you consider what birth control really is touted to be – the “responsible” thing to do if you aren’t going to be responsible in the first place – the grim reality is not surprising. And of course it logically follows that if someone’s idea of being responsible is to use a pill/device when you don’t want to be responsible in the first place, then responsible use of said pill/device is probably an unwarranted expectation. Yeah, read that last sentence one more time. OK, back to the HHS Mandate issue. If the argument is that most women will use birth control, therefore, it should be paid for by insurance, then what are they trying to get us to pay for? That women will have unintended pregnancies? It would seem so to the mathematically-aware, reality-doesn’t-make-you-a-geek observer. People become accustomed to a lifestyle of sex without consequences along with an ignorance of the human body, and an unintended pregnancy will likely remain an unwanted pregnancy, and we know what the advertised “cure” for that “disease” is – abortion. It is, thus, no surprise that the same people also predict that 1 in 3 women in their reproductive lifetime will have an abortion. (http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/fb_induced_abortion.html) Notice folks, here they speak in terms over time, when it suits their argument.
Thus, birth control over time normalizes abortion.
We knew that, but this calculation proves it using their own reported estimates. Of course the other alternative is to be “fixed” like an irrational animal with implants, injections or surgery, something Catholics also oppose because we are taught that to be fully human we must use our intellect and will to strive to be virtuous. Animals, as you know, can’t do math either.
Link – http://www.acceptingabundance.com/mathematical-proof-that-birth-control-fails/